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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and best bets

Brian Rudd
Sportsbook Wire

After losing 13 of 14 contests, the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-39) have bounced back with three wins in a row. They will look to finish strong against the Cleveland Indians (33-24), who are in the midst of a five-game winning winning streak themselves. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET Friday at Progressive Field. Below, we analyze the Pirates-Indians MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Pirates at Indians: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Keller missed more than six weeks due to an oblique strain, so he has made just four starts on the season. He is sporting a 3.24 ERA, though it's not supported by his 13:10 K:BB.

  • He was outstanding in his most recent start, tossing six hitless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, with six strikeouts and two walks.
  • The sample is small and a .454 BABIP is largely to blame, but Keller owns an ugly 9.09 ERA in eight career road starts, with a 35:15 K:BB in 31 2/3 innings.

Carrasco whiffed a season-high 11 batters in his last start, an outing in which he lowered his ERA to 2.90 across his 11 starts.

  • He went through a bit of a rough stretch in mid-August, but has been on a roll lately. In his last five starts, he boasts a 1.41 ERA, along with a 35:9 K:BB and just one homer allowed in 32 innings.
  • Carrasco induced 24 swinging strikes against the Tigers in his last outing, easily a season-high. He has 42 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings at home this season, along with a 3.03 ERA.

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Pirates at Indians: Key injuries

(Get the latest injury news here.)

Pirates

  • SS Kevin Newman (knee) out
  • SS Cole Tucker (concussion) out
  • RP Keone Kela (forearm) out

Indians

  • RP Emmanuel Clase (suspension) out
  • RP Jefry Rodriguez (shoulder) out

Pirates at Indians: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Pirates 4, Indians 3

Money line (ML)

  • Pirates +210
  • Indians -239

This has basically been a lost season for Keller, who was a popular breakout candidate heading into the year. We got a glimpse of what he was capable of in his last start, though, and with better than 2:1 odds, it's worth a shot to see if he can do it again. Take the PIRATES (+210).

New to sports betting? Every winning $10 bet on the Pirates ML will profit $21. A $10 bet on the Indians would return a profit of $4.18.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

  • Pirates +1.5 (-110)
  • Indians -1.5 (-110)

This is a very steep drop in potential payout just to be able to cash on a one-run loss. In this case, if looking for value in the underdog Pirates, it's probably best to PASS on the run line, and just attack the money line instead.

Over/Under (O/U)

  • Over 8 (-110)
  • Under 8 (-110)

The Pirates are dead last in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching, and will be hard-pressed to get much going against Carrasco.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland offense checks in at 25th in the category, and Keller seems like a pretty good bet to deliver a second straight good start. This sets up to be a pretty low-scoring affair, so UNDER 8 (-110) looks like the side to take on this total.

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